Initial thoughts and predictions for MSI

The teams:
Fnatic (Europe)
TSM (North America)
Besiktas Esports (Turkey)
EDG (China)
AHQ (Oceania)
SKtelecomT1 (South Korea)

 
This will be the first chance since worlds to judge where teams stand against each other on a global level. We have new challengers rising, EDG however is still the top team in China, rising above the other teams that have traditionally made these events such as OMG and Starhorn Royal Club. With added Korean talent, this roster has been pegged as possibly the best team in the world. Deft and Pawn have certainly brought strength to this line up and with Clearlove China’s best Jungler, there is justification for this claim. In fact Clearlove has been with the team in three straight LPL season wins. The interesting statistic for me is that last year EDG won both of their splits 3-0 with victories over Invictus Gaming and OMG but at the end of this season they won with a close 3-2 over LDG. This happening despite the Korean roster swaps. In terms of MSI they certainly have potential but in my personal opinion they will need to try rethinking their strategies after a tight finals matchA Perhaps I am being unfair to EDG here, they did after all defend their first place spot from LDG who went through both the second and third teams of the regular split. There is no doubt however that they are prepared for their chance to prove this line up internationally and show that the Chinese scene is now the strongest in the world of League of Legends.

 
Moving to Besiktas E-sports it should be of little surprise that they will struggle. Likely be defeated in most, if not all of their matches, to be eliminated in the initial stages. As a Turkish team from a growing E-sports scene I think they will fall against teams from the other regions. This team definitely has talent as in the late game this team demolished their Brazilian rivals over in IWCI, displaying strong early games in other matches. This will be a great chance for their roster to learn from better teams. The gauntlet has been thrown down, they begin with possibly the biggest challenge for any team at this tournament. SktelecomT1, is the first team that they will play against and I fully expect this to be a stomp. Sktt1 will probably play as standard as possible to preserve their more varied strategies for a later stage of the tournament. It doesn’t get a whole lot easier from there as they will line up against TSM, a team that for the first time dominated North America in more than just fan votes, consistently showing that they are better than their main challenger Cloud Nine. Finally the only game I think they have a chance of winning all tournament, AHQ. It’s a surprise to see that AHQ made it here, they weren’t expected to beat the Flash Wolves in the finals. Having said that AHQ probably won’t be an easy opponent and I am expecting Besiktas to end the day with no wins.

 
So AHQ upsetting the Flash Wolves and making it to MSI. I have seen other predictions that say Fnatic are likely to get upset by AHQ. I don’t think this happens for a few reasons. They will likely only face off in best of ones with Besiktas and AHQ likely to be the first that drop out of the tournament. In a best of one situation I favour Fnatic against most of the teams in this tournament. They have style that can catch people off guard with heavy aggression and willingness to commit to all in plays. I also expect that Huni and Reignover will be able to work together to great effect snowballing Huni who like the rest of the Fnatic squad is incredibly difficult to ban out. In short I think that AHQ will struggle here against most teams other than Besiktas and will probably be outclassed by the majority of other teams reaching MSI. This is however not to rule out the possibility that they could upset Fnatic who are still a very young team, with a lot to learn about international tournaments from Yellowstar. With the improvements in the Oceanic region shown by the Flash Wolves at IEM they are in my opinion only slightly behind Fnatic in power at this tournament.

 
Fnatic. I talked a lot about them in the AHQ section simply because I haven’t seen a lot of AHQ and wanted to discuss what some people are pegging as the most likely upset. Well Europe in all honesty has fallen in world power since the days of Xpeke and the old Fnatic getting to Semi-finals and even winning the first season. I don’t think this will last, the rookie talent in Europe is strong at the moment but needs time to develop. It pains me to say this but Fnatic will either turn up likely doing better than expected, or they will flop. They are a new team on a big stage, they are facing some of the toughest competition out there. It is not therefore unexpected that they will struggle. As a big Fnatic fan I hope they win the entire thing. But in all honesty I won’t bet or predict that because it isn’t likely. They have their strengths, as an article on LolEsports pointed out, they are a team that is incredibly hard to ban against. Huni in particular has shown that during the EU LCS playoffs. As far as matches go I think Fnatic have a decent chance in both. If they play as well as they have shown they can against AHQ I expect their style to carry them. TSM will be a challenge but if Fnatic can crush the early/mid game which their style favours and have improved their closing of games from the play offs I think we could see them take it.

 
So TSM. Fan favourites who recently won their first major international tournament (IEM). I believe they are set for a semi-finals spot same as Fnatic, it should be no surprise I think the journey will likely stop there, with EDG and Sktt1 look set to take the top two spots. However North America is the strongest western region at the minute and as European I don’t mind admitting that, I think the level of competition in their LCS this split has been better. So if there is any western team that can do well here it is TSM. Their midlaner is strong and I think Santorin’s addition to the team could be about to show up big as he is looking better and better with the team. As far as their matches tonight, I think Fnatic against TSM will depend hugely on the early/mid game and how well Fnatic does there, they should then take an easy win over Besiktas and a loss to Sktt1. TSM are very good at the standard game and playing for objectives, for me what marked this out as their best split in a long time was the consistence they showed in beating out the other teams at the top including that unforgettable first CLG vs TSM of the split with an epic turn around. Dyrus has been a slight problem in their losses however due to what could fairly be described as many over extensions.

 
Sktt1 will probably win the entire thing. They recently crushed GE tigers in the finals 3-0 without bringing out Bengi and Faker. To emphasise they crushed it. It was possibly the biggest blowout GE have ever been involved in. Now I don’t want to read too much into this for a few reasons. Firstly this is not a Meta in which GE looked good, they have really struggled with cinderhulk and the recent patch changes to the game. Secondly CJEntus against Sktt1 was a very close match and in my opinion they are the strongest teams at the moment in Korea. This therefore is a bet case study than the finals. But there are some things to be taken into consideration, firstly they reverse all killed CJEntus having gone down two games before winning any. This is scary because faker is still faker and has dominated teams pretty much singlehandedly when needed. Easyhoon however has stepped up and Tom appeared to have gotten over the problems he faced in the Semi-finals. Their support roster looks terrifying, which theoretically sets Sktt1 to be the best team in the world now, later this year, and potentially beyond that. So why am I not talking about their games? Because I fully expect them to win all of them.

 

So before I make the predictions I will conclude. Fnatic have a lot to prove but as a new roster I do worry they may falter, despite their skill. TSM will probably look the best of the western scene. Besiktas will probably fall in most if not every match. (The first game they play is likely to be an absolute massacre in favour of Sktt1) AHQ have the potential to upset but I don’t think they will. EDG look set to do well and in my opinion SKtt1 look strong enough to take the entire thing. As such my predictions for today are as follows.

Winners highlighted in bold:
TSM vs Fnatic (prediction partially made on my fan status of fnc)
Besiktas vs Sktt1
EDG vs AHQ
Besiktas vs TSM
Fnatic vs AHQ
Sktt1 vs EDG
AHQ vs Besiktas
Sktt1 vs TSM
Feel free to comment and contest these views as well as offer your own predictions in the comments. Hope you have had a lovely election day. All the very best
Hugh

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