Last night’s games at MSI, thoughts and brief match analysis.

Fnatic vs Tsm:
This game went as I expected it to. I really thought that Fnatic had an advantage here. Their aggressive style is very hard to counter for teams not used to it. There were a couple of things that went wrong for TSM, firstly Dyrus got put into a non-favourable match up. Between the teams there were six top lane bans, which forced Dyrus onto Gnar and was then counter picked by Cassiopea. This is not a match up Gnar wins and with Huni’s carry style against Dyrus’s utility style the difference was heavily exploited by two rapid kills onto him under his own turret. One of which was essentially a Huni solo kill. The second as was mentioned heavily by the casters and that is they had two sets of heavily losing lanes and did not lane swap. This decision was highly questionable as Dyrus ended up being crushed in the 1v1 anyway. Credit to Dyrus he played the team fights as well as he could considering the circumstances, landing some clutch Gnar ults. Fnatic though, as I mentioned yesterday had to play the early to mid-game well and they did. They started with relentless aggression, a level two gank. By about 10 minutes Reignover was 1/0/3 and Santorin was 0/0/0. This is not the score line that would have been expected, particularly when you consider the Rek Sai/Gragas early jungle head to head.  To cut the rest of the game down to a manageable size because I hope you will go watch them or have already. Fnatic took every dragon and a close to twenty minute baron resulting in an eight thousand gold lead and an open inhibitor at twenty five minutes. There were really no points when things looked scary for Fnatic in the game and Febiven embodied this with a bold turret finisher. Whilst TSM are undoubtedly a good team they gave Fnatic their game and with Huni and Febiven getting fed the support of the rest of the line-up turned this into a stomp. My MVP for this match would honestly go to Reignover for starting the snowball and shutting Bjergsen down, as well as having a solid performance throughout the rest of the match. I think though that Fnatic have proven something else in this game, not only that they can execute their style in a way that beats teams on the international circuit but that they can play in a restrained enough manner. Not throwing as they did during the regular season. The most important thing that Fnatic gains here is confidence and if they can keep this up I think they are guaranteed a top four finish. It is nice to see that Europe remains competitive despite what people including myself thought might have happened.

BJK vs Sktt1

Well I can’t really claim that this was hard to predict, this was difficult to call any other way, and BJK weren’t likely to pull off a World Elite. This being said they did do what they could, first blooding faker and achieving a return kill on a turret dive. This shows me that BJK have gone into this with the right attitude and are not scared to try and make plays on the international stage. Having said that, this match was very one sided. Sktt1 turned around and effectively smashed BJK in this match. Some great 1v1 kills and Wolf pulling off some good hooks to turn around bad situations. I have to admit that I won’t be watching the remaining games as closely, as I am watching both this and the UK election. Marin was my favourite for this match I think his rumble play at 6/0/5 last I saw it, landing solid equalisers and outplaying in the lane swap heavily defeating Thaldrin in the early game and continuing to snowball Sktt1. There was an element of Sktt1 not taking this match seriously and this was clear in some of the slightly sloppy plays early. What do I think this match shows? Not the full strength of Sktt1, I think they were having a good time in the easiest game they are likely to have and I expect them to get better as it goes. I expect that they will continue to play as standardly as they did here and won’t be made to reveal any strategies they may have prepared for the best of fives that will come later. Respect to besiktas but I fully expect them to lose most of their games in a similar way.

AHQ vs EDG

A close game for the first twenty minutes but one which I feel was largely in control of EDG. Westdoor had played a good Karthus and continued too. 1/1/4 at ten minutes and roughly equal with Pawn, AHQ did well. But at about twenty minutes a second dragon fight crushed AHQ. Koro1 went huge in the game from that point and finished at a score around 10/0/6. His teleport contribution at that dragon secured a dicey situation and snowballed the lead. From this point all the carries did well on EDG deft coming up well again and earning that status as a world class if not the best Adc with an all-round solid performance. You have to give the MVP for this match to Koro1, his contribution on Hecarim with well-timed ults and teleports swinging team fights and eliminating the opposing adc at the start of the fights. A fed Karthus does not offer a huge amount of finishing power if the adc is not also there to lay down damage in what was effectively a two damage source late game. A mention does have to go to Clearlove as a member of the line-up landing several solid ultimate’s that assisted Koro1 in dealing with the carries and securing team fights. I feel that whilst AHQ played a good solid early game the lead once gained by EDG was snowballed in a manner that they couldn’t cope with. Ultimately leading to what was a very convincing win. Sad for AHQ and Westdoor who had shown themselves able to be fairly competitive, there is the factor of scaling on both AHQ and EDG which contributed to this slow early game but does not take away from AHQ’s achievement. Sadly I think this game shows that they are out classed by some other teams in this tournaments.

TSM vs BJK

There really isn’t much to say about this match that wasn’t said in the first. I am fairly confident that it was an easy and controlled victory for TSM. They went back to the style they played so well in the NA LCS and lane swapped. This enabled Dyrus to do very well and avoid the punishment that Reignover and Huni metted out to him in the first game. I think this is also a sign of the strength of the TSM mentality not looking phased at all by the defeat they are faced with. Santorin showed up in this game too helping with the early game and making sure that Bjergsen got going. Bjergsen deserves his title as a monster of the mid lane but he does get camped similarly to Faker getting four man first blooded teams do target their rivals main carry or best player. Accumulation of these factors and other resulted in better dragon control and from there, no contest. TSM looked stronger in all positions and Dyrus in my opinion looked great. He would in fact get my personal MVP for this match beating out Thaldrim heavily in the lane swap and performing, avoiding the pressure and focus that so often harm his performance.

Fnatic vs AHQ

Perfect example of a snowball. Early first blood and several kills on to Fizz they pulled off the upset and I have to admit to being wrong here. I genuinely thought that Fnatic would have taken the match and beating TSM in such a fashion I felt fairly assured they would beat AHQ. Westdoor however went for a champion he is legendary on and showed up. He did fantastically edging out a number of 1v1 fights and slowly but surely getting himself towards the un-killable point that allowed him to drift in and out of team fights. AHQ showed what got them to this tournament in this game and if I had to pick an MVP it would be mountain for the early first blood and several over kill contributions and key aid in team fights. Yes Westdoor and Nardeus went huge but without mountain I feel the game would probably have been much closer if not a definite defeat if Fnatic had gotten off the ground. My thoughts on this match are that although it was one sided Fnatic are still the stronger team of the two and this game was a classic example of snowballing carries like Fizz who become nigh unstoppable and Sivir who enables team fights so easily. It is however worth noticing that it seemed that Fnatic were unable to adapt once they fell behind and this could be fairly telling for this team. Whether it is the mind set of desperation setting in or just a play style stubbornness within the roster it is worth saying that it bit Fnatic here and I think if they lose it will be in similar circumstances and fairly convincingly.

Sktt1 vs EDG

There is only one thing I want to start with. Easyhoon, he showed up in this match as he was doing in the regular season finals in Korea. There is a growing movement that think Easyhoon is becoming the kind of player that Faker was perhaps soon to stand with him in the spotlight. His vladamir in this match was great ending 2/0/4 not the most spectacular score but with 330 cs at 33 minutes, an exceptional record to hold against Pawn a mid laner reputed for beating Faker on a regular basis. Perhaps why they played Easyhoon in the first place. Whilst this kill participation is low it is still 60% with Sktt1 holding only 10 kills at the thirty two minute mark. So what did EDG do wrong, I feel that the comp was not as coherent but I also think that largely they got outplayed on a couple of levels. Despite only 13 kills in the game at 32 minutes there is a 5 turret and 4 dragon lead. An objective control lead that when mixed with kills granted a ten thousand gold lead. This harks back to my earlier post in which I stated that there is a terrifying sub roster on Sktt1, whilst tom has not yet made his debut on the international stage, Easyhoon has showed up big in this game standing shoulder to shoulder with Pawn and delivering a much better performance. Whilst it can be speculated Faker might not have done so well against his traditional nemesis who holds the head to head lane wins by about double there is no doubt that Easyhoon justified the faith put in him by the management. All in all a controlled and well-played game by Sktt1 effectively strangling EDG which is why I think they will take the tournament with this more effective test of skill falling in their favour.

AHQ vs BJK

This was a fairly bloody game. A kill a minute at twenty two minutes and a very small gold lead coming from lane advantage and slight turret advantage. Acing BJK at 23 minutes they took an easy baron which was effectively what sealed the deal on this game. Westdoor turned up again for AHQ tonight, he didn’t just perform on fizz bt was given twisted fate one of his signature champions and at 8/3/8 (32:09) he certainly delivered much as he did on fizz. It has been said that this is the tournament of the midlaners and in this game the midlaner was certainly on point. 16 contributions out of 20 kills a really solid performance from westdoor that earns him my MVP for this game. I think BJK have really tried in their games and it has showed but it has also shown just how good some regions have become. They have fought valiantly and will probably have learnt a lot but having lost all three games tonight I find it difficult to see a world in which BJK progress especially having lost the only game I thought they might do well in fairly handily. I have to hand it to AHQ whilst I thought they would win this match up I did not expect them to win 2/3 of their games this evening in nearly as convincing a manner as they did. They are really showing tonight why they beat the flash wolves and are in this tournament instead.

TSM vs Sktt1

This game an unmitigated stomp. Bengi was godlike and came up huge again just as he did against CJ entus. 9 out of 12 kills participated in within that many minutes. 21/27 kill participations near the end of the game. This was an example of Faker being fed by bengi and as with some of the other games tonight the lanes straight up won through Jungle support the game one stomp was basically the same thing. Truthully TSM looked disappointing today, they played less controlled and got outplayed by the better teams in the league. Whilst Sktt1 are probably the best international team, proving today at least in part that Korea is still the region to watch out for. The exodus of Korean players didn’t help EDG and TSM got slammed by much stronger team. Bengi has to have the MVP but it was a team effort with all lanes winning and a fairly equal spread of kills. It is this that makes it so terrifying that Sktt1 have not yet been challenged and they have played and fairly decisively beaten all the real competition. With this game in mind there really isn’t much to say for TSM other than that tomorrow they must do better or having just won IEM they are going to go out of MSI in the first round robin.

So conclusions based on what we saw. Fnatic did not totally flob but they didn’t go off in both games either. They looked pretty bad vs AHQ due to a successful snowball but I think the real challenge was against TSM who are arguably a better team than AHQ even when not showing up. They tend to be better at controlling the game and in that circumstance Fnatic ran away with it. I am hopeful therefore for Fnatic but not ecstatic or particularly displeased. Sktt1 lived up to all expectations crushing everyone and whilst BJK played gamely they too went the way I expected them to, getting decisively crushed in all games played despite some good early moves. EDG looked reasonable tonight winning the games they should have won and losing to the team that I think had an edge from the beginning in a controlled game that was by no means a stomp for Sktt1 despite its decisiveness. TSM well they were disappointing, they had a good solid match against BJK but then if they hadn’t won that it would have been similar to the fairly humiliating loss Alliance suffered to a wildcard team at worlds.

Predictions for today were 6-1 which I am fairly happy with and all credit to AHQ for causing the upset. Today’s predictions are (Again the ones I predict will be highlighted bold)

EDG vs FNC
While Fnatic looked good against TSM they fell to AHQ and I think that EDG is a strong enough team to deny the FNC strategy and pull out a win. However the same caveat has to be given to EDG, let Fnatic get going and they will make the plays.)
TSM vs AHQ
Whilst an exceptionally difficult match to call iI think that Westdoor is performing so far and Bjergsen is not. Whilst I hope TSM can pick up their game tomorrow and not be eliminated AHQ looked strong enough today to challenge TSM even when on normal par. So I expect that AHQ will take the momentum of their success and move it forward.
EDG vs BJK
No real need for explanation BJK have tried but I feel they will simply be outclassed.
Sktt1 vs FNC
Sktt1 just look too strong the same caveat as always applies but I think that the entire Sktt1 line up looks far too solid to be easily beaten by Fnatic even if their comp gets off the ground I feel Sktt1’s team fights should carry them.
TSM vs EDG
EDG have simply looked better and I suspect that TSM might tilt if they lose out to AHQ, so on the grounds of better roster and just generally being a stronger team that is performing I feel TSM are probably going to fall.
FNC vs BJK
Fnatic can probably have some fun with this one. I think their style will simply be too much for BJK and that Fnatic showed us vs TSM they are strong enough to use their strategy to great effect provided they are not horribly crushed early game. Whilst the early games of IWCI were good for BJK I do not feel they were good enough to carry them here.
AHQ vs Sktt1
Sktt1 are at this point undisputed favourites and unless they do a GE Tigers they should take this match comfortably. I wouldn’t be surprised to see all lanes win for Sktt1 and things snowball from there.

So there you have it a long blog post but I hope you found it enjoyable and informative. Please feel free to comment your own predictions below as well as your thoughts I would love to hear them. Hope you are having a great day.
Hugh