Short-term Financial Pain, Long-term Benefits? How Is Brexit Predicted To Affect NHS Healthcare?

Since the referendum, speculation is rife that the Government’s financial promises to the NHS will not be delivered. The potential impact on our healthcare system currently comprises 3 main areas.

Proposed cash injections of an extra £100 million per week from the Government would create a 4% budget rise, however there is no certainty that this can be delivered in the current climate of financial crisis.

Wendy Cowie-NHS Organizational Development Consultant, outlines her view of the impact:

“The biggest impact will be with nursing staff. In particular, this will be felt in the South of England where a higher percentage of nurses are from the EU and non-EU countries. There is great concern about the implications on research. Although, many of the scientists and healthcare professions involved in research will not be directly affected, coordination and funding for much of the research in the UK could be affected by Brexit (lots of the funding comes from international sources, both EU and non-EU, who may decide not to continue this funding into projects in the UK.)”

Figures suggest a 96% decrease in overseas staff applying for work in the NHS since the referendum. This has has led to a staffing crisis; the loss of 40000 nurses is predicted to continue to decrease after the UK leaves the EU.

NHS members remain unconvinced by the plans.

Paula Clarke, an NHS GP Practice Manager said:

“The likelihood of £100million is a pipe dream, governments are renowned for highlighting such figures as part of the political games they play to keep voters happy. Gaging what the all-round outcome will be, I can see that in so many year’s time we may then reap the benefits, hence short term pain (finance) but long term gain.”

Wendy Cowie adds:

“A 4% increase is unlikely to match the rising costs of healthcare once you take into account rising drug costs, demand on the NHS and other medical advances which require investment. However, long term this increase is not going to be sufficient. The main challenge facing the NHS and social care is staff shortages. Given that it is, on average, an 8 year lead in time for doctors to be able to practice and 3 years for a nurse, we find ourselves dependent on overseas professionals. As Brexit will make it harder for us to recruit overseas professionals both the NHS and Social Services will suffer regardless of this possible budget increase.”

Brexit, it seems, will increase the burden on the NHS even further at every level. Increasing supply costs, struggling administration, bed shortages and reduced staffing are already creating failures of service delivery and, it seems, will force a further decline in the short-term as far as anyone presently can predict. In the end, it may not be as simple as tightening our belts, or pulling up our socks,  because the decline in the NHS may require drastic re-structuring before it descends into a chaos from which it cannot be revived.